Publication Date: 2023/12/04
Abstract: This study aims to forecast the monthly prices of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines using different ARIMA models. The study used monthly price data from January 2018 to December 2022. The Box-Jenkins methodology was followed to select the best ARIMA models. The results show that the ARIMA (1,1,9), ARIMA (8,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,9) are the models that best fit for forecasting the prices of Fresh Chicken Breast, Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken Wings, respectively in the Philippines. The forecasted prices show a steady increase over the next five years, with the average monthly price of Fresh Chicken Breast, Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken Wings expected to rise from 212.01, 199.82 and 210.62 pesos per kilogram, respectively, in December 2022 to 264.16. 247.70, 269.95 per kilogram, respectively in December 2027. The study concludes tha t Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a powerful tool in forecasting fresh chicken parts in the Philippines where the results gave reasonable and acceptable forecasts. Additionally, the information generated can be useful for producers, consumers, and policymakers in mak ing informed decisions about the pricing and production of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines.
Keywords: E Views, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Fresh Chicken Parts Price and Estimate Equation using Candidate Models.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10254996
PDF: https://ijirst.demo4.arinfotech.co/assets/upload/files/IJISRT23NOV278.pdf
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